Thursday

Uh, Someone Dies. Look at my equation.

I'll spare myself from writing the full tale here, but suffice it to say that a very notable professor gave a talk here the other day, and i was entirely incredulous. The talk was crap, the math was a thin veil with which he attempted to hide the fact that he simply had no content--no contribution at all in this paper of his.

The paper was supposed to model the transition to democracy, or the stability of the democratic state after transition or the purpose of elections. These are three very different concepts. But he wasn't sure which one he was speaking about. Huh.

Question from colleague:
"So, you're saying that elections serve to coordinate the electorate to rebel if the leader 'misbehaves,' and without elections, the citizens wouldn't be able to stage a revolt. Well, then, sir, why would leaders ever allow elections? Doesn't that open the door to rebellions and accountability on his part?"

His reponse:
"Um, Someone dies."

Now, I wouldn't have been so affected had this guy been a lowly graduate student, or perhaps a struggling junior professor, or perhaps a senile tenured professor who is just delivering papers to get the free airline ticket to San Diego. But this guy is huge in our field. And only about 40 years old--so senility ain't the problem.

Now why does this upset me so? Well, his paper is crap, but it is filled to the brim with worthless--though pretty and delightfully complicated--math. He is huge, respected, published, tenured. I do not write crap papers. I keep my math as simple as possible, and only use it to actually further my understanding of a problem. Perhaps I am not what the rest of the field is looking for.

But also:

When I was an anthropology student in dear old Saint Louis, I was often angered at the use of language, or academic-speak, to obscure the argument being made by the author. In other words--hopefully simply enough that everyone can damn me if they disagree--most of the seminal works I had to read seemed entirely devoid of content, but 'gussied up' with verbal condiments to hide the taste. As though the author thought, "If I use more complicated language, and extend the length of all of my sentences, then perhaps they will be confused into believing that this something worthwhile." And what is most disheartening is that the trick has seemed to work in a great many areas for a great many authors.

Now, when I decided that one major wasn't enough, I picked up economics. I found more egregious sins there. Not so much as applied to straight micro/business problems, but rather, when economists attempted to flex their mathematical muscles in other fields of inquiry--read: political economy/political science. Building fancy mathematical models into one's work seems to buy credibility--whether it is deserved or not. How often have do social scientists report statistics that are in no way significant, or strategically omit the information which would report significance, banking on the fact that most people see the statistical tables and their eyes glaze over, their breathing becomes regular and deep, and drool peaks out the corners of their mouths, therefore leaving the audience catatonic enough to "buy" the piss-poor argument bolstered by shit-poor statistics? Too often.

While it may be merely irksome that academics are flexing this kind of muscle to confuse other academics, many times, these works have real policy implications. For instance, The Bell Curve, which basically told America that race is the sole determinant of intellectual capability, and well, no amount of education can change the rankings (which, the book claimed were: Chinese>White>Black>Latino), became a NYT best seller! But while other academics, at the very least, are responsible for weeding out the bullshit (read: looking through the appendix, and noting that all the statistics are absolute crap), the authors knew that the rest of America would feel no compunction to grab a statistics text to enrich their reading of the book. However, the numbers, and the manner in which they were presented to the ignorant citizenry, actually convinced people to swallow this jaw-droppingly stupid argument.

It's irreponsible, and it's pervasive in academia. And this is why, this week, I have been sad to be an academic, myself.

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14 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

'Kay, I need some context. Isn't it true that the presence/absence of election is not the individual whim of the leader, but is part of the structure of the state?

4:48 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Okay, the actual paper is by Fearon at Stanford; this particular paper is supposed to be a mathematical/ game-theoretic model of--well, here's where the problem comes in--we don't know what he was trying to model. But, his story was basically that once an authoritarian state transitions to a democracy, elections serve to coordinate the citizenry--so, initially, some autocrat/dictator/authoritarian ruler has to decide to transition to democracy. He does so, according to Fearon, because--um, wait, this was also unclear in his paper.

Another whopping contribution to political science. thanks, dude.

4:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's fascinating shit. Too bad he dropped the ball.

I had a thing about this re: Arab elections and how leaders feel embarrassed about winning with 99% of the vote, so they orchestrate things so as to win with 85% of the vote. It's unclear to me too why they'd even bother.

4:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you familiar with Robert Pape? (I think he's U of Chicago). Saw him talk about suicide terrorism a few weeks ago.

5:02 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Most likely answer: foreign aid/foreign investment. If one can legitimate the elections (the farse in Belarus, for instance, which gave the opposition a whole 6% of the vote, but disallowed exit polls, etc) by simply giving some meager portion of the vote to the opposition, then the citizens of the electorate that know they voted for the opposition will include themselves in the 6%, but will have a difficult time of basically recreating the election to show that more than 6% of the electorate went to the opposition. I.e., 4% of the electorate might be able to rally and say, "Hey, we're more than 1%! Who else didn't get counted??" There goes legitimacy, and it's more difficult to prove there was election fraud. though it is painfully obvious to everyone...

5:03 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Oh, suide terrorism is really fascinating...very few societies are able to convince people this is the way to go. Most do so by offering large sums to the fam/helping the individuals to internalize the cultural norms. Americans ain't down with that though...

5:04 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Oh, and on that subject, terrorism is actually just fascinating, in general. It's actually the best strategy any country can use in the now hegemonic world. Funny thing is, the collapse of the Soviet Union has led to a real proliferation of terrorism, as no one can "compete" with the US military in standard war ways--the (kind of) balance of power before stymied this kind of activity for the most part. With the new hegemony, however, you have lots o' little political cleavages springing up, and so terrorism flourishes.

5:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Pape's thesis is that suicide terrorism is a phenomenon that arises under foreign occupation of a particular territory. He has a pretty compelling argument, though he and I aren't exactly fellow-travelers.

5:09 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Yeah, I don't buy that. We didn't really see a lot of suicide terrorism in colonial Africa, or Australia, or...

The two primary cultures which have been successful is incorporating this into their military strategies are Japan and the Middle East. In the former, there was a huge cultural commodity in dying in warfare--internalization of cultural norms. In the second, well, as you know, aside from the huge economic benefits promised (and delivered to) the terrorist's family, there are all them virgins a-waitin! Again, internalization of cultural norms.

5:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, but when it does arise, it arises in the context of foreign occupation.

I don't think it has anything to do with virgins, or financial payments, American media notwithstanding.

I think As'ad gets it right: http://archive.salon.com/sex/feature/2001/11/07/islam/index_np.html

5:23 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

I agree whole-heartedly that suicide-bombing has less to do with virgins in heaven than political frustrations on earth. However, there was also a cultural groove into which this strategy could fit/be worked; This groove does not exist in most Western cultures. Also, while foreign occupation has most recently been a necessary pre-condition for suicide terrorism, not all foreign-occupied territories resort to this strategy. So, as with most things, it's a bit more complicated than anything either of us will be able to fit into a comment on a blog...

But this has been, by far, the most interesting conversation I've had all day.

5:33 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

Oh, but I forgot we had the linguistics discussion...okay, this is, by epsilon, the most interesting conversation I've had all day.

5:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm happy that this is the most interesting 'conversation' you've had all day. That's what the internets are for!

I would counter that Western societies don't need to resort to suicide terrorism because they're not particularly oppressed. If they were, I believe, a "groove" would be invented. One uses the tools that are ready to hand.

And with that, it's an aspirin and off to bed. I have a horrible day in front of me (among other things, a dentist appointment).

'night!

5:39 AM  
Blogger slickaphonic said...

I'm usually a fan of the rational choice/utilitarian theories of human behavior--but in this case I gotta give a shout out to culture, too. South America/Central America/Cuba, etc, are have contenders for oppressed peoples, yet suicide terrorism has not sprung up there. And I agree that niches can be created in order to accomodate best-response strategies; but I also believe that this particular strategy has an easier fit in particular cultures.

I feel like I'm tap-dancing.

I'd rather be drinking.

That sounds like a fine idea.


Hope tomorrow goes AWAP (as well as possible--I really want to start something here...)

G'night to you, too!

6:13 AM  

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